20% of the World Population Could be Infected with COVID 19
As we open America and other countries around the world, one question remains open, where are we in terms of the ultimate number of cases on a global basis. I think we all realize the getting accurate numbers is challenging the Johns Hopkins University has one of the best websites in tracking data. This article was written on June 21, 2020, and the numbers will change by the time you read this, Johns Hopkins reported on a global basis there were 8,389,772 confirmed cases in the world and 452,250 deaths across the globe.
Clearly, the messages from public health officials are at best confusing, they tell us we must practice social distancing, use masks, and limit groups to 50 or less. I was concerned about the massive protests that started breaking out concerning the murder of a black man by a police officer in Minneapolis. We had over one thousand public health officials sided with go out and protest, don’t worry about your exposure to COVID 19. If we can’t allow people to go to church, but we allow them to come to the streets of our cities, riot, loot and destroyed property with people assembling by the thousands. This appears to me that public health officials are sending mixed messages to the American people.
A new report came out this week that may give us some idea where we are in the evolution chain of the COVID 19 pandemic. The global health journal, The Lancet, reported a study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine made this prediction, “1 in 5 people worldwide at risk for severe COVID 19.
Let us look at America under this projection; currently, we have had 2,196,998 cases reported, and 118,519 people have died. According to the Census Bureau, we now have 329,227,748 people in this country. If we apply the London school number of 20%, we could have 65,848,549 cases in America by the time COVID 19 runs its course. That means that the caseload will increase 30 times, the total of all the people that have been infected since the beginning of the outbreak.
If we apply the current mortality rate, then the number of Americans who will die could reach almost 18 million people. The death rate staying at the same rate will produce 151 times as many deaths that we have already experienced since the beginning of the pandemic. These numbers are horrifying, and I wonder what the scientist was trying to do when they decided to release these numbers?
The COVID 19 modeling from the very beginning has been both scary and very unreliable. Federal, state, and local governments are making decisions on opening our economy based on many of these unreliable models. In a recent commentary, when the protests, riots, and looting broke out, I suggested that we will find out by the end of the month the results of the largest clinical trial in the history of medicine.
If we didn’t see a significant rise and the number of cases reported in the states that had the greatest assembly of protesters, rioters, and looters, I concluded at The CDC information on all the things we needed to do were bogus and we should lift all the restrictions. We should open every state and allow all the sports teams to fill the stadiums. The logic was with tens of thousands of people in a mob; the ability to maintain social distancing, wearing masks and washing their hands regularly didn’t happen. So how is the largest clinical trial progressing?
21 states have seen upward trends in newly reported cases, while eight states are seeing steady numbers of recently reported cases, and finally, 21 states are seeing a downward trend of new cases. It is essential to point out the number of states that I have seen 29 states leveling off or downward trend, and they are the following:
Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Connecticut, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Ohio, South Dakota, Utah, and Washington.
Now, look at the 29 states who are either level or going down and compare them to the states that are all significant outbreaks of protest, rioting, and looting. The epicenter of protests Minnesota saw downtrend in cases. Many other states on the list were substantial in the participation of the violence, and protests have not seen an increase in cases of COVID 19. We should know by June 26, if there’s any material change. If there is no material change, then I would hope that the elected representatives and the healthcare professionals would admit their mistakes and encourage the federal, state, and local governments, to rapidly expand the opening of America.
Dan Perkins is a published author of 4 novels on nuclear and biological terrorism against the United States and is a current events commentator for over 20+ news blogs. He recently has had commentaries posted on Medium and Clash Daily. He appears on radio and TV regularly many times a month. Dan’s newest show is called “America’s Cannabis Conversation,” on the W420radionetwork.com. More information on Perkins can be found on his web site: danperkins.guru